Heads Up Play Can be Profitable

Heads up play is my bread and butter ... if I need entry into a tournament I earn that fee via a Heads Up Match.  I started the day going against "tatta" ... one of the best online Omaha players (that I am lucky enough to have a winning record against) but lost after getting crippled chasing multiple draws.  

Then it hit me why not run an experiment?

Heads Up Experiment

To see what my win ratio would be if I played 10 + straight heads up matches.  I played in 27 Heads Up matches and lost 7 of them.   My game of choice was Omaha ... I feel I have an edge over most online players.  Most of my buy ins were $11 but some were higher ($23, $34, and $57).  I stayed with Pot Limit because it gives me more control over the size of the pot and the pot odds for draws.

Another experiment

Omaha Tips

I could write about how to play Omaha (for example What are good starting Omaha hands?) but others have done a better job explaining Omaha then I could. 

My advice is the following:

• Know why you are in the pot. 
• The nuts change every street ... beware when the texture of the board changes.
• Play the player.   If the player is aggressive ... let him bet it for you!   If the player is tight ... take as many small pots as possible.
• Try to win large pots and lose small pots.
• Keep the Hand History open to check how he plays his cards (does he trap when he has a hand and bet on draws?)
• Play the limit that is within your budget.
• Find a Stat collection service that can help you tract your own stats and the stats of your opponents. 

Stat Collection Services

Below are some of the stat collection services that are available.  Make sure you are not breaking any rules by using these services ... as far as I know the sites listed below are legal but that is subject to change, please verify with each site you play on.

• Sharkscope - has a good SNG/HU capture rate. 
• Poker Pro 3 has a a great layout and is great for MTT and SNG but their HU capture rate needs improvement (missed 3 HU matches of mine out of 50 played). 
• Offical Poker Rankings is great for MTT tracking.

There are Three Parties in a Heads Up Match

When you play heads up there are three parties involve: you, your opponent, and the poker site.  Poker site's never lose ... they collect a rake every time you play.  I know I know but follow me here ... if you are a .500 player you will lose money via the rake.

Example: You pay $57.50 for a chance to win $110.00 ($55 into the prize pool and $2.50 for the rake). Someone will win, someone will lose, and the poker site collects $5 for hosting the game.

My point: Make sure you can win 2 out of 3 matches in Heads Up play.  I have over 20% ROI at the $10 level ... 17% ROI at the $20 level ... but I am a 3% to -3% ROI at the $55 level.  I win 50% of my games at the $55 level but that is not enough to cover my rake.  If you play 20 games at the $55 level, expect to pay $50 in rake.

Why swim with the Sharks: I love to challenge myself but that is not positive EV. I have a winning record against tatta (6-3) but a losing record against $hip It (2-5) ... average that out and I am a .500 player ... which means I lost money (16 games at $2.50 per match ... $40.00 in rake).

What? That is my long winded way of saying know your game and where the profits hide.


Quick Math:

The question that should be asked ... what EV should you shoot for ...

I played in 27 Heads Up matches and lost 7 of them ... I needed to win 8 matches to offset the 7 I lost plus rake collected by the site ... leaving me with 12 wins of pure profit. 

I want to win 2 out of 3, that would give me 1 win with profit for every 3 matches played ... so 20 wins out of 27 games played meets that goal.

Results

• I won 20 out of 27 but only 12 out of 27 increased my bankroll - 45% ROI.
• My game was Omaha (I feel I have a slight edge over most online players).
• Majority of my buy ins were for $11 but some were higher ($23, $34, and $57).
• I played Pot Limit because it gives me more control over the size of the pot and control over pot odds for draws.
• Matches lasted 20 minutes on avg.
• Dates shown are from June 4th - June 8th.

Details below: